What is a prediction market?
On a prediction market you buy and sell contracts on the outcome of a future event. The price of the contract is the market's view of how likely that outcome is. A contract settles at $1.00 if the outcome happens and at $0.00 if it does not.
01Market question
Polymarket US lists a market
on a question with a clear, checkable answer and publishes the resolution terms. Users cannot list their own.
A clear, checkable question A question, its answer criteria, and resolution terms are published together. MARKET QUESTION YES NO 02Peer-to-peer trading
You buy Yes or No
at the price on offer. Another user takes the opposite side.
Buying Yes or No Opposing orders meet. Another participant takes the other side. YES NO PEER TO PEER 03Market probability
The price is the forecast.
A contract trading at 70 cents means the market puts the probability at about 70%.
The price is the forecast An illustrative 70-cent price aligns with a 70-percent probability. 0% 100% 70¢ 70% PRICE ↔ PROBABILITY 04Market resolution
When the event resolves,
the profitable side is paid $1.00 per contract and the other side is paid nothing.
An outcome, then a payout A winning contract settles at $1. A losing contract settles at $0. NO $1.00 $0.00 YES OUTCOME RECORDED
Interactive example
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates at the next meeting?
Risk 60¢ to win 40¢
Risk 40¢ to win 60¢
Yes and No always add up to $1.00, because exactly one of them pays out. Move the slider to see how the price, the risk, and the payout move together.