US Confirms That Aliens Exist?
December 31, 2026
7%+13297¢14.286
December 31, 2026
Yes
14.29x
No
1.06x
June 30, 2026
0%+9999990¢1,000,000.000
June 30, 2026
Yes
No
If the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any U.S. federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will settle to Yes. Outcome verified by the Executive Branch of the United States Government.
The Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence, the Director of the OMB, the Director of the CIA, the United States Trade Representative, the Ambassador to the UN, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, the Administrator of the SBA, and the Director of the OSTP.
- Upcoming: Event startDec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM EST
- Upcoming: Market closesDec 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM EST
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
What is the “US Confirms That Aliens Exist?” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of US Confirms That Aliens Exist?. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
What happens if I hold winning shares?
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Where do the odds come from?
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.