Samuel Alito Announced Out as SCOTUS Justice?
By December 31, 2026
17%+48817¢5.882
By December 31, 2026
Yes
5.88x
No
1.19x
By August 31, 2026
2%+49002¢50.000
By August 31, 2026
Yes
50.0x
No
1.01x
By July 31, 2026
0%+9999990¢1,000,000.000
By July 31, 2026
Yes
No
This market will settle to Yes if Samuel Alitos departure as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States is officially announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from Samuel Alito and the Supreme Court.
The departure will be considered to be announced when Samuel Alito, the Supreme Court of the United States, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Alito has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified persons resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither I will leave office in 2 years, nor I will not be in office forever, would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified persons duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will settle to Yes if major news agencies of record confirm the departure by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Upcoming: Event startDec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST
- Upcoming: Market closesDec 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM EST
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
What is the “Samuel Alito Announced Out as SCOTUS Justice?” prediction market?
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