Next Claude Sonnet Released?
Next Claude Sonnet Released?
By October 31, 2026
95%95¢1.053
By October 31, 2026
1.05x
By September 30, 2026
50%50¢2.000
By September 30, 2026
2.0x
This market will settle to Yes if Anthropic releases a new model labeled Sonnet by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from Anthropic.
A "release" refers to the specified model being made accessible and usable to the general public without requiring special status, including via an open beta or open rolling waitlist. A release available to some or all paid members of the public qualifies. A closed beta, or access limited to a closed group of testers, researchers, or enterprise customers, does not qualify.
- Upcoming: Event startOct 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM EDT
- Upcoming: Market closesBy end of Oct 31, 2026
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
What is the “Next Claude Sonnet Released?” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of Next Claude Sonnet Released?. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
What happens if I hold winning shares?
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Where do the odds come from?
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.