Claude 6 Released?
Claude 6 Released?
By June 30, 2027
58%58¢1.724
By June 30, 2027
1.72x
By March 31, 2027
50%50¢2.000
By March 31, 2027
2.0x
By December 31, 2026
25%25¢4.000
By December 31, 2026
4.0x
This market will settle to Yes if Anthropic releases a Claude model numbered 6.0 or greater by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from Anthropic.
Task-specific products or restricted lines such as Claude Code, Claude Gov, or Claude Security, will not qualify on their own.
A "release" refers to the specified model being made accessible and usable to the general public without requiring special status, including via an open beta or open rolling waitlist. A release available to some or all paid members of the public qualifies. A closed beta, or access limited to a closed group of testers, researchers, or enterprise customers, does not qualify.
- Upcoming: Event startJun 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM EDT
- Upcoming: Market closesBy end of Jun 30, 2027
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
What is the “Claude 6 Released?” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of Claude 6 Released?. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
What happens if I hold winning shares?
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Where do the odds come from?
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.