This market will settle to Yes if Anthropic has the #1 ranked AI model on the Arena AI Text Arena leaderboard on September 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET (Style Control Off). Outcome sourced from Arena AI.

The #1 ranking is determined by the "Rank" column of the Arena AI Text Arena overall leaderboard, with Style Control toggled off (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control).

If multiple models from different companies are tied for rank #1, the model with the highest Score will be considered the #1-ranked model (including any underlying, unrounded values reflected in the data below the leaderboard). If a tie remains, the company whose name, as listed in this market, comes first in alphabetical order will be considered the winner.