Which Companies will have #1 AI Model in 2026?

This market will settle to Yes if OpenAI has the #1 ranked AI model on the Arena AI Text Arena leaderboard at any point between Contract Issuance and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (Style Control Off). Outcome sourced from Arena AI.

The #1 ranking is determined by the "Rank" column of the Arena AI Text Arena leaderboard, with Style Control toggled off (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control).

If multiple models from different companies are tied for rank #1, both models will be considered a #1 ranked model.