Which Companies will have #1 AI Model in 2026?
Which Companies will have #1 AI Model in 2026?
Google
39%39¢2.564
Google2.56x
OpenAI
30%30¢3.333
OpenAI3.33x
xAI
16%16¢6.250
xAI6.25x
Meta
12%12¢8.333
Meta8.33x
Moonshot
11%11¢9.091
Moonshot9.09x
Z.ai
10%10¢10.000
Z.ai10.0x
DeepSeek
6%6¢16.667
DeepSeek16.67x
Alibaba
5%5¢20.000
Alibaba20.0x
ByteDance
5%5¢20.000
ByteDance20.0x
Baidu
4%4¢25.000
Baidu25.0x
Amazon
3%3¢33.333
Amazon33.33x
This market will settle to Yes if Google has the #1 ranked AI model on the Arena AI Text Arena leaderboard at any point between Contract Issuance and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (Style Control Off). Outcome sourced from Arena AI.
The #1 ranking is determined by the "Rank" column of the Arena AI Text Arena leaderboard, with Style Control toggled off (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control).
If multiple models from different companies are tied for rank #1, both models will be considered a #1 ranked model.
- Upcoming: Event startDec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST
- Upcoming: Market closesBy end of Dec 31, 2026
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
What is the “Which Companies will have #1 AI Model in 2026?” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of Which Companies will have #1 AI Model in 2026?. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
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Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
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Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
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Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.