Gemini 4 Released?
Gemini 4 Released?
By November 30, 2026
94%94¢1.064
By November 30, 2026
1.06x
By October 31, 2026
77%77¢1.299
By October 31, 2026
1.3x
By September 30, 2026
8%8¢12.500
By September 30, 2026
12.5x
This market will settle to Yes if Google releases a Gemini model numbered 4.0 or greater by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from Google.
A "release" refers to the specified model being made accessible and usable to the general public without requiring special status, including via an open beta or open rolling waitlist. A release available to some or all paid members of the public qualifies. A closed beta, or access limited to a closed group of testers, researchers, or enterprise customers, does not qualify.
- Upcoming: Event startNov 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST
- Upcoming: Market closesBy end of Nov 30, 2026
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
What is the “Gemini 4 Released?” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of Gemini 4 Released?. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
What happens if I hold winning shares?
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Where do the odds come from?
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.