Brazil, Israel, & US Senate Elections Combo

This market will settle to Yes if Flavio Bolsonaro wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, Naftali Bennett is the first individual to formally assume the office of Prime Minister of Israel as part of government formation following the next Israeli Parliamentary election, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 midterm elections. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities.

In the event that the 2026 Brazilian Presidential Election is rescheduled, this market will settle based on the results of the next Brazilian Presidential Election to be held within two years of October 4, 2026.

Any acting, interim, or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the settlement of this market. If the next Israeli parliamentary election takes place, and a new election is called prior to any individual formally assuming the office of Prime Minister of Israel, this market will settle based on the next individual to assume the office as part of government formation following the new election.

A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chambers voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated.

The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.

All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.

For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.

For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.

Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that partys count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, settlement may be postponed until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.

Note: This market settles based on the outcomes of the constituent listed Polymarket US Contracts, namely the "2026 Brazil Presidential Election Winner", "Prime Minister of Israel After the Next Election" & "U.S Senate Midterm Winner" Contracts.