US Measles Cases in 2026?
Above 3000
97%-323397¢1.031
Above 3000
Yes
1.03x
No
4.55x
Above 3500
73%-27073¢1.370
Above 3500
Yes
1.37x
No
1.69x
Above 4500
62%-16362¢1.613
Above 4500
Yes
1.61x
No
1.67x
Above 5000
51%-10451¢1.961
Above 5000
Yes
1.96x
No
1.01x
Above 7500
51%-10451¢1.961
Above 7500
Yes
1.96x
No
1.01x
Above 4000
–No price
Above 4000
Yes
No
This market will settle to Yes if the total number of confirmed Measles cases reported in the United States for 2026 is greater than 3000 at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Outcome sourced from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
The applicable count will be the count reported on the CDC Measles Cases and Outbreaks page (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html).
- Upcoming: Event startJul 23, 2026 at 11:51 AM EDT
- Upcoming: Market closesDec 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM EST
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
What is the “US Measles Cases in 2026?” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of US Measles Cases in 2026?. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
What happens if I hold winning shares?
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Where do the odds come from?
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.