This market will settle to Yes if it is officially announced by Amazon MGM Studios, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, that Robert Pattinson has been cast to play James Bond in the next official James Bond film. Only the first official announcement of the actor cast as the primary James Bond character counts; if Robert Pattinson is announced and later withdraws or is replaced, or the film is delayed, cancelled or never released, the market will still settle to Yes. A supporting appearance as James Bond (e.g., a flashback portrayal) does not count, and statements by Robert Pattinson, their representatives or any other third party do not count unless confirmed by an official announcement. If an official announcement names multiple actors to play James Bond without identifying which will play the primary character, the market for each named actor will settle to $1.00 divided by the number of named actors, rounded down to the nearest tick. If another entity gains creative control of the James Bond franchise, an official announcement by that entity, reported by a credible secondary source, will qualify. If Robert Pattinson has not been announced as the next James Bond by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will settle to No. Outcome sourced from Amazon MGM Studios.
This market lets you trade on the outcome of Next James Bond Actor?. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.