GPT-6 Released?
December 31, 2026
82%-45682¢1.220
December 31, 2026
Yes
1.22x
No
5.26x
September 30, 2026
58%-13858¢1.724
September 30, 2026
Yes
1.72x
No
2.33x
August 31, 2026
11%+80911¢9.091
August 31, 2026
Yes
9.09x
No
1.02x
August 14, 2026
7%+13297¢14.286
August 14, 2026
Yes
14.29x
No
1.04x
July 31, 2026
0%+9999990¢1,000,000.000
July 31, 2026
Yes
No
This market will settle to Yes if OpenAI releases GPT-6 by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from OpenAI.
A "release" refers to the specified model being made accessible and usable to the general public without requiring special status, including via an open beta or open rolling waitlist. A release available to some or all paid members of the public qualifies. A closed beta, or access limited to a closed group of testers, researchers, or enterprise customers, does not qualify.
GPT-6 refers to any model explicitly named GPT-6 or greater, or to any model that is identified by OpenAI as a new model generation successor to the GPT-5 generation, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8 or additional decimalized GPT-5 variants will not qualify.
- Upcoming: Event startDec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST
- Upcoming: Market closesDec 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM EST
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
What is the “GPT-6 Released?” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of GPT-6 Released?. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
What happens if I hold winning shares?
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Where do the odds come from?
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.