Pete Hegseth Announced Out as Secretary of War?
By December 31, 2026
31%+22331¢3.226
By December 31, 2026
Yes
3.23x
No
1.41x
By August 31, 2026
6%+15676¢16.667
By August 31, 2026
Yes
16.67x
No
1.04x
By July 31, 2026
0%+9999990¢1,000,000.000
By July 31, 2026
Yes
No
This market will settle to Yes if Pete Hegseths departure as United States Secretary of War is officially announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from Pete Hegseth, the Department of War, and the White House.
The departure will be considered to be announced when Pete Hegseth, the Department of War, the White House, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Hegseth has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Secretary of War. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified persons resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither I will leave office in 2 years, nor I will not be in office forever, would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified persons duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will settle to Yes if major news agencies of record confirm the departure by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Upcoming: Event startDec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST
- Upcoming: Market closesDec 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM EST
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
What is the “Pete Hegseth Announced Out as Secretary of War?” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of Pete Hegseth Announced Out as Secretary of War?. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
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