Brazil Presidential Election Second Round Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round Margin of Victory
1,580 chatting
Lula da Silva 12%+
38%38¢2.632
Lula da Silva 12%+2.63x
Lula da Silva 8-12%
24%24¢4.167
Lula da Silva 8-12%4.17x
Lula da Silva 4-8%
48%48¢2.083
Lula da Silva 4-8%2.08x
Lula da Silva 0-4%
24%24¢4.167
Lula da Silva 0-4%4.17x
Flavio Bolsonaro 0-4%
61%61¢1.639
Flavio Bolsonaro 0-4%1.64x
Flavio Bolsonaro 4-8%
46%46¢2.174
Flavio Bolsonaro 4-8%2.17x
Flavio Bolsonaro 8-12%
16%16¢6.250
Flavio Bolsonaro 8-12%6.25x
Flavio Bolsonaro 12%+
8%8¢12.500
Flavio Bolsonaro 12%+12.5x
This market will settle to Yes if Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's margin of victory in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election is greater than or equal to 12%. Outcome sourced from the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral.
The margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference in vote share percentages between the candidate that receives the most valid votes in the specified election and the candidate that receives the second-most valid votes in the specified election. A candidate's vote share percentage will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the candidate by the total number of valid votes cast in the election.
If the specified candidate does not receive the most valid votes in the specified election, this market will settle to No. If the margin falls exactly on the boundary between two ranges, the Contract will settle in favor of the range for which that value is the inclusive lower boundary. If multiple candidates tie for the most votes in the specified election, Yes contract holders of the lowest bracket contract for each tied candidate receive $1.00 divided by the number of tied candidates, rounded down to the nearest tick, per contract.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the second round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
For full rules, see: https://www.polymarketexchange.com/files/products/PMUS%20-%20VMC%20-%20(2026.06.26).pdf
- Upcoming: Event startOct 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT
- Upcoming: Market closesOct 25, 2026 at 11:59 PM EDT
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
What is the “Brazil Presidential Election Second Round Margin of Victory” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of Brazil Presidential Election Second Round Margin of Victory. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
What happens if I hold winning shares?
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Where do the odds come from?
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.