This market will resolve to "Yes" if New York records rain on November 7, 2026, meaning the National Weather Service Daily Climate Report for Central Park, New York (KNYC) reports measurable precipitation for that date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Measurable precipitation is a PRECIPITATION (IN) figure of 0.01 inches or more for November 7, 2026 in the governing Daily Climate Report, evaluated at the precision the report gives. A trace ("T") does not count. The figure is total liquid-equivalent precipitation, so snow, sleet, hail or freezing rain included in it counts; an entry in the WEATHER CONDITIONS section without a qualifying PRECIPITATION (IN) figure, snow depth, snowfall and forecast precipitation do not. A governing report that gives the figure as missing ("M" or "MM") is treated as reporting 0.00 inches, and this market will resolve to "No".
November 7, 2026 is the climatological day the Daily Climate Report uses: 12:00 AM to 11:59 PM local standard time at the station, being 05:00 UTC November 7, 2026 to 04:59 UTC November 8, 2026. Local standard time does not shift for daylight saving time.
The governing report is ordinarily the Daily Climate Report issued on November 8, 2026 that reports November 7, 2026 as YESTERDAY. Where more than one Daily Climate Report is issued for November 7, 2026, the last one published by 2:00 PM ET on November 8, 2026 governs. A report stated to be valid as of a time earlier than the end of the climatological day (for example "VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME") does not govern, nor does a report issued on November 7, 2026 that reports it as TODAY unless it is stated to be valid as of the end of the climatological day. Where no such report has been published by 2:00 PM ET on November 8, 2026, the first one published afterwards governs.
This market will resolve after 2:00 PM ET on November 8, 2026, once the governing report is known. If no governing report has been published 7 days after November 7, 2026, resolution may be delayed by up to 7 more days, and the first report published within that period governs; if none is published by then, this market will resolve at the last fair market price. If the station stops reporting during November 7, 2026 because it closes or relocates, this market will resolve at the last fair market price; no other station will be used. If the governing report gives a clearly erroneous value resulting from technical or operational error or from unauthorized interference, resolution may be delayed by up to 7 days for a corrected value, which will be used if published; otherwise the outcome will be determined under the Contract Outcome Review Process.
The resolution source for this market will be the National Weather Service Daily Climate Report for KNYC published here: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&product=CLI&issuedby=NYC
This market lets you trade on the outcome of Where will it rain on Nov 7?. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.