California Billionaire Wealth Tax Referendum
Passes?
32%+21232¢3.125
Passes?
Yes
3.13x
No
1.45x
This market will settle to Yes if a measure, initiative, or proposition which would initiate a one-time tax on billionaires is approved by the numerical threshold of voters in California required for it to pass at the 2026 midterm elections. Outcome sourced from the government of California.
Proposition 40, which would qualify, currently requires a simple majority of votes to approve for passage. The passage or non-passage of additional conflicting measures will not affect the outcome of this market.
- Upcoming: Event startNov 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM EST
- Upcoming: Market closesNov 3, 2026 at 6:59 PM EST
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
What is the “California Billionaire Wealth Tax Referendum” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of California Billionaire Wealth Tax Referendum. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
What happens if I hold winning shares?
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Where do the odds come from?
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.