2026 Midterms: Democratic Senate Seats?
2026 Midterms: Democratic Senate Seats?
1,095 chatting
45+
–No price
45+
47+
97%97¢1.031
47+
1.03x
49+
86%86¢1.163
49+
1.16x
51+
70%70¢1.429
51+
1.43x
53+
51%51¢1.961
53+
1.96x
55+
21%21¢4.762
55+
4.76x
57+
12%12¢8.333
57+
8.33x
This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Partys seat count in the United States Senate is greater than or equal to 45 as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. Outcome sourced from relevant state electoral authorities, and the United States Senate.
The seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 (ET). Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Democratic party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, settlement may be postponed until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
- Upcoming: Event startNov 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM EST
- Upcoming: Market closesNov 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
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What is the “2026 Midterms: Democratic Senate Seats?” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of 2026 Midterms: Democratic Senate Seats?. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
What happens if I hold winning shares?
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Where do the odds come from?
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.