US Birth Rate in 2026? (Per 1000 Women)
US Birth Rate in 2026? (Per 1000 Women)
298 chatting
51.0+
93%93¢1.075
51.0+
1.08x
51.5+
95%95¢1.053
51.5+
1.05x
52.0+
85%85¢1.176
52.0+
1.18x
52.5+
45%45¢2.222
52.5+
2.22x
53.0+
38%38¢2.632
53.0+
2.63x
This market will settle to Yes if the general fertility rate for the United States for 2026, as reported by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) in Births: Provisional Data for 2026, is greater than or equal to 51.0 births per 1,000 females aged 1544. Outcome sourced from the NCHS at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
This market settles based on the general fertility rate published in the National Center for Health Statistics' Births: Provisional Data series, viewable at https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/births.htm. Each year's figure is taken as first published; later revisions will not be considered.
If NCHS does not publish the general fertility rate for 2026 in Births: Provisional Data by September 27, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will settle based on the general fertility rate for the most recent year prior to 2026 for which it has been published in Births: Provisional Data.
For full rules, see: https://www.polymarketexchange.com/files/products/PMUS%20-%20GFRC%20-%20(2026.10.06).pdf
- Upcoming: Event startOct 1, 2026 at 10:32 PM EDT
- Upcoming: Market closesMar 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM EDT
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
What is the “US Birth Rate in 2026? (Per 1000 Women)” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of US Birth Rate in 2026? (Per 1000 Women). Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
What happens if I hold winning shares?
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Where do the odds come from?
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.