How Many US Homes Built in 2026?
How Many US Homes Built in 2026?
78 chatting
1.20M+
97%97¢1.031
1.20M+
1.03x
1.25M+
79%79¢1.266
1.25M+
1.27x
1.30M+
67%67¢1.493
1.30M+
1.49x
1.35M+
9%9¢11.111
1.35M+
11.11x
1.40M+
7%7¢14.286
1.40M+
14.29x
This market will settle to Yes if the estimated annual total of privately-owned housing units completed in the United States for 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau in the New Residential Construction release for December 2026, is greater than or equal to 1,200,000. Outcome sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market settles based on the estimated annual total of privately-owned housing units completed (not seasonally adjusted), published in the U.S. Census Bureau's New Residential Construction release, currently in Table 5b, viewable at https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/index.html. Each year's figure is taken as first published; later revisions will not be considered.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not publish the estimated annual total of privately-owned housing units completed for 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will settle based on the estimated annual total of privately-owned housing units completed for the most recent year prior to 2026 for which it has been published.
For full rules, see: https://www.polymarketexchange.com/files/products/PMUS%20-%20HUCMC%20-%20(2026.10.06).pdf
- Upcoming: Event startOct 1, 2026 at 10:32 PM EDT
- Upcoming: Market closesJan 19, 2027 at 11:59 PM EST
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
What is the “How Many US Homes Built in 2026?” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of How Many US Homes Built in 2026?. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
What happens if I hold winning shares?
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Where do the odds come from?
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.