How High Will the US Debt Get Before 2028?
How High Will the US Debt Get Before 2028?
155 chatting
$41T
98%98¢1.020
$41T
1.02x
$42T
60%60¢1.667
$42T
1.67x
$43T
52%52¢1.923
$43T
1.92x
$44T
26%26¢3.846
$44T
3.85x
$45T
25%25¢4.000
$45T
4.0x
This market will settle to Yes if total public debt outstanding, as reported by the U.S. Department of the Treasury in Debt to the Penny, for any reporting day from October 1, 2026 through December 31, 2027 is greater than or equal to $41,000,000,000,000. Outcome sourced from the U.S. Department of the Treasury.
This market settles based on Debt to the Penny, published each business day by the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, viewable at https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/. Each day's figure is taken as first published; later revisions will not be considered.
If the U.S. Department of the Treasury does not publish complete data for the specified period by January 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will settle based on the data published up to that point.
For full rules, see: https://www.polymarketexchange.com/files/products/PMUS%20-%20TPDOC%20-%20(2026.10.06).pdf
- Upcoming: Event startOct 1, 2026 at 10:32 PM EDT
- Upcoming: Market closesJan 3, 2028 at 11:59 PM EST
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
What is the “How High Will the US Debt Get Before 2028?” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of How High Will the US Debt Get Before 2028?. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
What happens if I hold winning shares?
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Where do the odds come from?
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.