Fed Decision in October
No Change
69%-22369¢1.449
No Change
Yes
1.45x
No
3.13x
25 bps Increase
24%+31724¢4.167
25 bps Increase
Yes
4.17x
No
1.3x
25 bps Decrease
5%+19005¢20.000
25 bps Decrease
Yes
20.0x
No
1.04x
50+ bps Decrease
4%+24004¢25.000
50+ bps Decrease
Yes
25.0x
No
1.03x
50+ bps Increase
3%+32333¢33.333
50+ bps Increase
Yes
33.33x
No
1.01x
This market will settle to Yes if the Federal Reserve increases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by 50 basis points or more at the October 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for October 27-28. Outcome sourced from the Federal Reserve.
If the change in the specified rate does not precisely match the displayed options, changes smaller than the smallest option of the same direction (increase/decrease) will be rounded to that smallest option, and changes greater than the smallest option of the same direction will be rounded to the nearest displayed option, with values exactly halfway between options being rounded away from zero.
- Upcoming: Event startJul 28, 2026 at 2:00 PM EDT
- Upcoming: Market closesOct 28, 2026 at 7:59 PM EDT
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
What is the “Fed Decision in October” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of Fed Decision in October. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
What happens if I hold winning shares?
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Where do the odds come from?
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.