This market will settle to Yes if United States federal government enters a full or partial government shutdown by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from the United States federal government, including the Office of Management and Budget, and the Office of Personnel Management.

A federal government shutdown is defined as a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees. A shutdown goes into effect when the suspension of non-excepted operations is issued.

A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by the applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations does not qualify as a shutdown. Office closures or operational suspensions due to holidays, inclement weather, or other non-appropriations-related causes do not constitute a qualifying shutdown.

A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a qualifying shutdown.