Government Shutdown?
By October 1, 2026
57%-13357¢1.754
By October 1, 2026
Yes
1.75x
No
1.35x
This market will settle to Yes if United States federal government enters a full or partial government shutdown by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from the United States federal government, including the Office of Management and Budget, and the Office of Personnel Management.
A federal government shutdown is defined as a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees. A shutdown goes into effect when the suspension of non-excepted operations is issued.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by the applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations does not qualify as a shutdown. Office closures or operational suspensions due to holidays, inclement weather, or other non-appropriations-related causes do not constitute a qualifying shutdown.
A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a qualifying shutdown.
- Upcoming: Event startOct 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM EDT
- Upcoming: Market closesOct 1, 2026 at 7:59 PM EDT
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
What is the “Government Shutdown?” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of Government Shutdown?. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
What happens if I hold winning shares?
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Where do the odds come from?
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.