Closer Governor Race: California or New York?
Closer Governor Race: California or New York?
130 chatting
New York
99%99¢1.010
New York
1.01x
California
–No price
California
This market will settle to Yes if the 2026 New York gubernatorial election has a smaller margin of victory than the 2026 California gubernatorial election. Outcome sourced from relevant state election authorities.
The margin of victory for each election is the absolute difference in vote share percentages between the candidate that receives the most votes in the election and the candidate that receives the second-most votes in the election. A candidate's vote share percentage will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the candidate by the total number of valid votes cast in the election.
Where an election is tabulated by ranked-choice or instant-runoff voting, the margin of victory is measured in the final round of tabulation that determines the winner. Where an election includes a potential runoff or second round, the margin of victory is measured in the final round that determines the winner.
This market considers only the 2026 gubernatorial elections in California and New York scheduled as of Contract Issuance. If the two elections have identical margins of victory, Yes contract holders for each tied election receive $1.00 divided by the number of tied elections, rounded down to the nearest tick, per contract.
- Upcoming: Event startNov 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM EST
- Upcoming: Market closesNov 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
Insider trading and market manipulation are prohibited. Polymarket US rules prohibit, among other things, insider trading, trading by anyone who can control or influence the outcome, and market manipulation.
Candidates in this race may not trade on this market. You also may not trade on this market if any of the following applies to you:
Do not trade on stolen confidential information. You may not trade on any contract if you possess confidential information about the outcome or likely outcome of the underlying event, if using that information would violate a preexisting duty or obligation of trust or confidence you owe to another person or entity.
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What is the “Closer Governor Race: California or New York?” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of Closer Governor Race: California or New York?. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
What happens if I hold winning shares?
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Where do the odds come from?
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.