California Governor Election Margin of Victory
California Governor Election Margin of Victory
Becerra 25-30%
40%40¢2.500
Becerra 25-30%2.5x
Becerra 35%+
39%39¢2.564
Becerra 35%+2.56x
Becerra 30-35%
39%39¢2.564
Becerra 30-35%2.56x
Becerra 5-10%
39%39¢2.564
Becerra 5-10%2.56x
Becerra 0-5%
39%39¢2.564
Becerra 0-5%2.56x
Becerra 20-25%
27%27¢3.704
Becerra 20-25%3.7x
Becerra 15-20%
23%23¢4.348
Becerra 15-20%4.35x
Hilton Wins
8%8¢12.500
Hilton Wins12.5x
Becerra 10-15%
2%2¢50.000
Becerra 10-15%50.0x
This market will settle to Yes if Xavier Becerra's margin of victory in the 2026 California Governor election is greater than or equal to 35%. Outcome sourced from relevant state election authorities.
The margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference in vote share percentages between the candidate that receives the most valid votes in the specified election and the candidate that receives the second-most valid votes in the specified election. A candidate's vote share percentage will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the candidate by the total number of valid votes cast in the election.
If the specified candidate does not receive the most valid votes in the specified election, this market will settle to No. If the margin falls exactly on the boundary between two ranges, the Contract will settle in favor of the range for which that value is the inclusive lower boundary. If multiple candidates tie for the most votes in the specified election, Yes contract holders of the lowest bracket contract for each tied candidate receive $1.00 divided by the number of tied candidates, rounded down to the nearest tick, per contract.
- Upcoming: Event startAug 10, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT
- Upcoming: Market closesBy end of Nov 3, 2026
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
What is the “California Governor Election Margin of Victory” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of California Governor Election Margin of Victory. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
What happens if I hold winning shares?
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Where do the odds come from?
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.