CA-01 House Election Winner
CA-01 House Election Winner
Mike McGuire (D)
98%98¢1.020
Mike McGuire (D)1.02x
James Gallagher (R)
5%5¢20.000
James Gallagher (R)20.0x
This market will settle to Yes if a representative of the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm election for the CA-01 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities.
The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.
- Upcoming: Event startAug 12, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT
- Upcoming: Market closesBy end of Nov 3, 2026
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
What is the “CA-01 House Election Winner” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of CA-01 House Election Winner. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
What happens if I hold winning shares?
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Where do the odds come from?
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.