IL-04 House Election Winner
IL-04 House Election Winner
Patty Garcia (D)
99%99¢1.010
Patty Garcia (D)1.01x
Lupe Castillo (R)
4%4¢25.000
Lupe Castillo (R)25.0x
This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the IL-04 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities.
The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.
- Upcoming: Event startAug 6, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT
- Upcoming: Market closesBy end of Nov 3, 2026
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
What is the “IL-04 House Election Winner” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of IL-04 House Election Winner. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
What happens if I hold winning shares?
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Where do the odds come from?
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.