This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee's margin of victory in the 2026 AR-03 House election is greater than or equal to 40%. Outcome sourced from relevant state election authorities.

The margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference in vote share percentages between the candidate that receives the most valid votes in the specified election and the candidate that receives the second-most valid votes in the specified election. A candidate's vote share percentage will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the candidate by the total number of valid votes cast in the election.

If the specified candidate does not receive the most valid votes in the specified election, this market will settle to No. If the margin falls exactly on the boundary between two ranges, the Contract will settle in favor of the range for which that value is the inclusive lower boundary. If multiple candidates tie for the most votes in the specified election, Yes contract holders of the lowest bracket contract for each tied candidate receive $1.00 divided by the number of tied candidates, rounded down to the nearest tick, per contract.