AZ-04 House Election Margin of Victory
AZ-04 House Election Margin of Victory
8 chatting
Democrat 35%+
–No price
Democrat 35%+Democrat 30-35%
–No price
Democrat 30-35%Democrat 25-30%
99%99¢1.010
Democrat 25-30%1.01x
Democrat 20-25%
–No price
Democrat 20-25%Democrat 15-20%
–No price
Democrat 15-20%Democrat 10-15%
–No price
Democrat 10-15%Democrat 5-10%
–No price
Democrat 5-10%Democrat 0-5%
–No price
Democrat 0-5%
Republican Wins
0%0¢1,000,000.000
Settled outcome: No
Republican WinsSettled outcome: No
This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee's margin of victory in the 2026 AZ-04 House election is greater than or equal to 35%. Outcome sourced from relevant state election authorities.
The margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference in vote share percentages between the candidate that receives the most valid votes in the specified election and the candidate that receives the second-most valid votes in the specified election. A candidate's vote share percentage will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the candidate by the total number of valid votes cast in the election.
If the specified candidate does not receive the most valid votes in the specified election, this market will settle to No. If the margin falls exactly on the boundary between two ranges, the Contract will settle in favor of the range for which that value is the inclusive lower boundary. If multiple candidates tie for the most votes in the specified election, Yes contract holders of the lowest bracket contract for each tied candidate receive $1.00 divided by the number of tied candidates, rounded down to the nearest tick, per contract.
- Upcoming: Event startNov 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM EST
- Upcoming: Market closesNov 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
Insider trading and market manipulation are prohibited. Polymarket US rules prohibit, among other things, insider trading, trading by anyone who can control or influence the outcome, and market manipulation.
Candidates in this race may not trade on this market. You also may not trade on this market if any of the following applies to you:
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What is the “AZ-04 House Election Margin of Victory” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of AZ-04 House Election Margin of Victory. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
What happens if I hold winning shares?
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Where do the odds come from?
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.