This market will settle to Yes if an AI Safety Bill is enacted into U.S. federal law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from the United States Congress and the White House.

An AI Safety Bill is any legislation containing a provision that imposes at least one of the following on developers or deployers of AI systems generally, or on a defined class of them (such as developers of models above a stated compute, capability, or parameter threshold):

Prohibition on Release or Mandated Review: Forbids the release of specific AI systems or models, or of models above a stated capability threshold; mandates federal government review and approval or non-rejection of such models as a condition of release; or grants a federal agency authority to prohibit or suspend the development or release of such models, whether or not that authority is exercised. Voluntary submission of models to federal review will not alone qualify.

Training Restrictions: Limits how AI systems may be trained, such as restricting the use of previously available training data or capping the compute power or parameters used for training.

Usage Restrictions: Prohibits AI systems from being deployed in specified applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other software, or taking actions on the web.

Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to incorporate mechanisms for human oversight or intervention in their operation.

The following do not qualify: provisions governing only the federal government's own acquisition, procurement, or use of AI systems, or that of federal contractors in performing government work (including restrictions on AI developed in or by foreign adversaries); provisions applying only to AI systems used in national security, intelligence, or military applications; provisions regulating the content AI systems produce or its dissemination, such as deepfake, non-consensual imagery, or robocall statutes; disclosure, labeling, reporting, audit, or study requirements; liability or antitrust provisions; and provisions directing an agency to develop rules or standards without themselves imposing one of the requirements above.

Qualifying legislation may be enacted through passage by the United States House of Representatives and Senate and subsequent signature by the United States President, or through other formal means which constitute enactment into United States Federal law (e.g., veto override).