This market will settle to Yes if Ron DeSantis receives the most valid votes of any candidate in the Iowa Republican primary, caucus, or other official process by which the Iowa public directs the voting of delegates for the selection of the 2028 Republican presidential nominee. Outcome sourced from the Iowa Republican Party.
If the relevant delegate selection process is a caucus or other multi-round process, the relevant vote count will be the final round vote count that determines the apportionment of statewide delegates.
If multiple candidates tie for the most votes in the specified electoral contest, Yes contract holders for each tied candidate receive $1.00 divided by the number of tied candidates, rounded down to the nearest tick, per contract.
This market lets you trade on the outcome of 2028 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.