Will Wages Beat Inflation in 2026?
Will Wages Beat Inflation in 2026?
176 chatting
Yes
26%26¢3.846
Yes
3.85x
This market will settle to Yes if the 12-month percent change in real average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, seasonally adjusted, from December 2025 to December 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Real Earnings release for December 2026, is greater than 0.0 percent. Outcome sourced from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market settles based on the Real Earnings release published monthly alongside the Consumer Price Index, viewable at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.toc.htm. Each month's figure is taken as first published; later revisions will not be considered.
If the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not publish the 12-month percent change in real average hourly earnings for December 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will settle based on the 12-month percent change in real average hourly earnings for the most recent month prior to December 2026 for which it has been published.
For full rules, see: https://www.polymarketexchange.com/files/products/PMUS%20-%20RAHEC%20-%20(2026.10.06).pdf
- Upcoming: Event startOct 1, 2026 at 10:32 PM EDT
- Upcoming: Market closesJan 13, 2027 at 11:59 PM EST
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
What is the “Will Wages Beat Inflation in 2026?” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of Will Wages Beat Inflation in 2026?. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
What happens if I hold winning shares?
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Where do the odds come from?
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.