Texas Senate Election Winner
Tue, Nov 3Lean D
J. Talarico64%
Tue, Nov 3Lean D
K. Paxton37%
32,715 chatting
Primary
J. Talarico
64%64¢1.562
1.56x
J. Talarico
1.56x
K. Paxton
37%37¢2.703
2.7x
K. Paxton
2.7x
This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for US Senator from Texas. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities.
The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.
- Upcoming: Event startNov 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM EST
- Upcoming: Market closesNov 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
Insider trading and market manipulation are prohibited. Polymarket US rules prohibit, among other things, insider trading, trading by anyone who can control or influence the outcome, and market manipulation.
Candidates in this race may not trade on this market. You also may not trade on this market if any of the following applies to you:
Do not trade on stolen confidential information. You may not trade on any contract if you possess confidential information about the outcome or likely outcome of the underlying event, if using that information would violate a preexisting duty or obligation of trust or confidence you owe to another person or entity.
Do not trade on illegal tips. You may not trade on confidential information that was passed to you by someone who owed a preexisting duty of trust or confidence to someone else, if you know or have reason to know that the person who shared the information would be prohibited from trading on it themselves.
Do not trade on an outcome you can influence. You may not trade on any contract if you hold a position of authority or influence sufficient to affect the outcome of the underlying event.
Do not trade to manipulate market prices or mislead others. You may not place trades or orders for the purpose of artificially influencing market prices, creating a false or misleading impression of market activity, or distorting the information reflected by market prices. Trading intended to manipulate market prices or mislead others about the likelihood of an outcome is strictly prohibited.
What is the “Texas Senate Election Winner” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of Texas Senate Election Winner. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
What happens if I hold winning shares?
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Where do the odds come from?
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.
