This market will settle to Yes if Democratic Party candidates win the 2026 midterm elections for US Senator from Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities.
The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.
A Republican Party candidate means the Republican Party nominee or, in Alaska, a representative of the Republican Party. A Democratic Party candidate means the Democratic Party nominee or, in Alaska, a representative of the Democratic Party. If an independent or third-party candidate wins any of these elections, this market will settle to No.
Note: This market settles based on the outcomes of the constituent listed Polymarket US Contracts, namely the "Alaska Senate Election Winner", "Iowa Senate Election Winner", "Kansas Senate Election Winner", "Maine Senate Election Winner", "Michigan Senate Election Winner", "Ohio Senate Election Winner" & "Texas Senate Election Winner" Contracts.
Insider trading and market manipulation are prohibited. Polymarket US rules prohibit, among other things, insider trading, trading by anyone who can control or influence the outcome, and market manipulation.
Candidates in this race may not trade on this market. You also may not trade on this market if any of the following applies to you:
Do not trade on stolen confidential information. You may not trade on any contract if you possess confidential information about the outcome or likely outcome of the underlying event, if using that information would violate a preexisting duty or obligation of trust or confidence you owe to another person or entity.
Do not trade on illegal tips. You may not trade on confidential information that was passed to you by someone who owed a preexisting duty of trust or confidence to someone else, if you know or have reason to know that the person who shared the information would be prohibited from trading on it themselves.
Do not trade on an outcome you can influence. You may not trade on any contract if you hold a position of authority or influence sufficient to affect the outcome of the underlying event.
Do not trade to manipulate market prices or mislead others. You may not place trades or orders for the purpose of artificially influencing market prices, creating a false or misleading impression of market activity, or distorting the information reflected by market prices. Trading intended to manipulate market prices or mislead others about the likelihood of an outcome is strictly prohibited.
This market lets you trade on the outcome of Build Your Map: AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.