Closest Senate Race?
Closest Senate Race?
1,104 chatting
Iowa
14%14¢7.143
Iowa
7.14x
Kansas
14%14¢7.143
Kansas
7.14x
South Carolina
12%12¢8.333
South Carolina
8.33x
Texas
11%11¢9.091
Texas
9.09x
Maine
10%10¢10.000
Maine
10.0x
Alaska
9%9¢11.111
Alaska
11.11x
Michigan
9%9¢11.111
Michigan
11.11x
Nebraska
8%8¢12.500
Nebraska
12.5x
Ohio (Special)
8%8¢12.500
Ohio (Special)
12.5x
Virginia
6%6¢16.667
Virginia
16.67x
Florida (Special)
5%5¢20.000
Florida (Special)
20.0x
Minnesota
4%4¢25.000
Minnesota
25.0x
North Carolina
3%3¢33.333
North Carolina
33.33x
Georgia
2%2¢50.000
Georgia
50.0x
New Hampshire
2%2¢50.000
New Hampshire
50.0x
This market will settle to Yes if the 2026 Iowa US Senate election has the smallest margin of victory of any US Senate election held in 2026. Outcome sourced from relevant state election authorities.
The margin of victory for each election is the absolute difference in vote share percentages between the candidate that receives the most votes in the election and the candidate that receives the second-most votes in the election. A candidate's vote share percentage will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the candidate by the total number of valid votes cast in the election.
Where an election is tabulated by ranked-choice or instant-runoff voting, the margin of victory is measured in the final round of tabulation that determines the winner. Where an election includes a potential runoff or second round, the margin of victory is measured in the final round that determines the winner.
This market considers all US Senate elections, including special elections, scheduled as of October 31, 2026 to be held in November 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November 2026. If two or more of those elections have identical smallest margins of victory, Yes contract holders for each tied election receive $1.00 divided by the number of tied elections, rounded down to the nearest tick, per contract.
- Upcoming: Event startNov 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM EST
- Upcoming: Market closesNov 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
Insider trading and market manipulation are prohibited. Polymarket US rules prohibit, among other things, insider trading, trading by anyone who can control or influence the outcome, and market manipulation.
Candidates in this race may not trade on this market. You also may not trade on this market if any of the following applies to you:
Do not trade on stolen confidential information. You may not trade on any contract if you possess confidential information about the outcome or likely outcome of the underlying event, if using that information would violate a preexisting duty or obligation of trust or confidence you owe to another person or entity.
Do not trade on illegal tips. You may not trade on confidential information that was passed to you by someone who owed a preexisting duty of trust or confidence to someone else, if you know or have reason to know that the person who shared the information would be prohibited from trading on it themselves.
Do not trade on an outcome you can influence. You may not trade on any contract if you hold a position of authority or influence sufficient to affect the outcome of the underlying event.
Do not trade to manipulate market prices or mislead others. You may not place trades or orders for the purpose of artificially influencing market prices, creating a false or misleading impression of market activity, or distorting the information reflected by market prices. Trading intended to manipulate market prices or mislead others about the likelihood of an outcome is strictly prohibited.
What is the “Closest Senate Race?” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of Closest Senate Race?. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
What happens if I hold winning shares?
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Where do the odds come from?
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.