How Low Will Unemployment Get by December?
How Low Will Unemployment Get by December?
4.0%
52%52¢1.923
4.0%
1.92x
3.8%
14%14¢7.143
3.8%
7.14x
3.6%
5%5¢20.000
3.6%
20.0x
This market will settle to Yes if the U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in the Employment Situation Report for any month from October 2026 through December 2026 is less than or equal to 4.0%. Outcome sourced from BLS.
This market settles based on the Employment Situation Report releases published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), viewable at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm. Each month's figure is taken as first published; later revisions will not be considered.
If the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not publish complete data for the specified period by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will settle based on the data published up to that point.
For full rules, see: https://www.polymarketexchange.com/files/products/PMUS%20-%20UNRTC%20-%20(2026.10.06).pdf
- Upcoming: Event startOct 1, 2026 at 10:32 PM EDT
- Upcoming: Market closesJan 8, 2027 at 11:59 PM EST
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
What is the “How Low Will Unemployment Get by December?” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of How Low Will Unemployment Get by December?. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
What happens if I hold winning shares?
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Where do the odds come from?
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.