October Unemployment Rate
October Unemployment Rate
Above 3.8%
99%99¢1.010
Above 3.8%
1.01x
Above 3.9%
98%98¢1.020
Above 3.9%
1.02x
Above 4.0%
94%94¢1.064
Above 4.0%
1.06x
Above 4.1%
68%68¢1.471
Above 4.1%
1.47x
Above 4.2%
35%35¢2.857
Above 4.2%
2.86x
Above 4.3%
8%8¢12.500
Above 4.3%
12.5x
Above 4.4%
4%4¢25.000
Above 4.4%
25.0x
Above 4.5%
2%2¢50.000
Above 4.5%
50.0x
Above 4.6%
2%2¢50.000
Above 4.6%
50.0x
This market will settle to Yes if the U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in the Employment Situation Report for October 2026 is above 3.8%. Outcome sourced from BLS.
Settlement is based on the Employment Situation Report release published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), currently scheduled for release on November 6, 2026. Any subsequent revisions to this figure will not be considered for settlement purposes.
If no qualifying U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) figure for the specified month is released within three months of the Employment Situation Report scheduled release date, this market will resolve based on data from the most recent previous month with available data.
For full rules, see: https://www.polymarketexchange.com/files/products/PMUS%20-%20URC%20-%20(2026.04.03).pdf
- Upcoming: Event startNov 6, 2026 at 8:30 AM EST
- Upcoming: Market closesNov 6, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
What is the “October Unemployment Rate” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of October Unemployment Rate. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
What happens if I hold winning shares?
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Where do the odds come from?
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.