Grok 5 Released?
By December 31, 2026
62%-16362¢1.613
By December 31, 2026
Yes
1.61x
No
2.56x
By September 30, 2026
5%+19005¢20.000
By September 30, 2026
Yes
20.0x
No
1.01x
This market will settle to Yes if xAI releases Grok 5 by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from xAI.
A "release" refers to the specified model being made accessible and usable to the general public without requiring special status, including via an open beta or open rolling waitlist. A release available to some or all paid members of the public qualifies. A closed beta, or access limited to a closed group of testers, researchers, or enterprise customers, does not qualify.
Grok 5 refers to any model explicitly named Grok 5 or greater, or to any model that is identified by xAI as a new model generation successor to the Grok 4 generation. Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7 or additional decimalized Grok 4 variants will not qualify.
- Upcoming: Event startDec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST
- Upcoming: Market closesDec 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM EST
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
What is the “Grok 5 Released?” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of Grok 5 Released?. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
What happens if I hold winning shares?
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Where do the odds come from?
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.