Where Will 2026 Rank Among the Hottest Years on Record?
Where Will 2026 Rank Among the Hottest Years on Record?
1st
79%79¢1.266
1st
1.27x
2nd
17%17¢5.882
2nd
5.88x
3rd
2%2¢50.000
3rd
50.0x
4th
2%2¢50.000
4th
50.0x
5th Or Lower
2%2¢50.000
5th Or Lower
50.0x
This market will settle to Yes if 2026 is the hottest year on record on the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. Outcome sourced from NASA GISS.
The relevant figure will be found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt.
Years are ranked in descending order by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, and so on, across all years for which the index has data.
If 2026 is tied with another year in the ranking, the tied rank governs. For example, if 2026 is tied for 2nd, it is ranked 2nd (not 3rd).
Settlement will be based on the data as first published by NASA GISS. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
- Upcoming: Event startSep 24, 2026 at 2:33 PM EDT
- Upcoming: Market closesMar 1, 2027 at 11:59 PM EST
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
What is the “Where Will 2026 Rank Among the Hottest Years on Record?” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of Where Will 2026 Rank Among the Hottest Years on Record?. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
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Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
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