What Will Be in a US-Iran Deal in 2026?

This market will settle to Yes if the United States and Iran sign or formally adopt a written diplomatic instrument that establishes a commitment for Iranian-controlled enriched uranium to be downblended or diluted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from the United States, Iran, and the officially released text of the instrument.

A qualifying written instrument must provide for any quantity of enriched uranium held by Iran to be downblended or diluted to a lower enrichment level. The establishment of an enrichment cap or an enrichment moratorium, without a commitment to downblend or dilute already enriched uranium, will not qualify.

The instrument must require the dilution to occur within Iran, or for the diluted material to be returned to Iranian control, having been diluted or downblended elsewhere. Iran need not carry out the downblending or dilution itself; a commitment for a third-party entity (e.g., the IAEA) to perform it will qualify. A commitment to remove enriched uranium from Iranian territory does not qualify, unless the terms of the instrument specifically require the uranium to be diluted and the resulting diluted material be returned to Irans possession or control.

The dilution or downblending of Iranian enriched uranium must be expressed as a presently-agreed obligation to be implemented. A presently-agreed obligation to dilute Iranian uranium will qualify, even if technical or procedural details, including the implementation schedule or exact dilution method, remain subject to future arrangements. A conditional commitment the substantive obligation of which remains explicitly subject to a future agreement, negotiation process, or mutually agreed follow-on instrument (e.g., a commitment to negotiate a dilution requirement in a future agreement) will not qualify. A commitment explicitly framed as a minimum requirement for a future negotiation, rather than a present obligation, will not qualify.

Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially-issued electronic signatures will qualify as signatures.

If the written instrument is recognized by the United States and Iran as not requiring signature for execution, formal adoption of the instrument by both countries without signature will qualify. Formal adoption may be established by official actions, including: (i) an official joint statement announcing that the United States and Iran have adopted, approved, executed, concluded, or otherwise finalized the instrument; (ii) mutual official confirmation that the same published instrument has been agreed to, adopted, approved, executed, or concluded by both countries; (iii) adoption, approval, or endorsement through an official resolution, ministerial decision, executive decision, or equivalent institutional act, where that act is the mechanism by which the relevant country adopts the instrument; or (iv) an exchange of official diplomatic notes or letters confirming acceptance of the same instrument.

Whether an instrument qualifies will be primarily determined by its officially released text. A qualifying instrument must be signed or formally adopted by both the United States and Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. If such an instrument is signed or formally adopted by that time, but the complete text has not been released within 28 days of adoption, official and definitive announcements from the United States and Iran regarding the text, or a consensus of major news agencies of record, may be used to determine whether the instrument qualifies. If, on {date}, the text of such an instrument has not been released and genuine material ambiguity remains as to whether it satisfies this markets requirements, settlement may be postponed to allow for 28 calendar days after the date of adoption to pass pending release of the text.

Once a diplomatic instrument has been signed or formally adopted without signature by both the United States and Iran and confirmed to satisfy the requirements of a qualifying written diplomatic instrument, this markets condition is met, regardless of whether the instrument later enters into force, is ratified, receives legislative or treaty consent, or is subsequently repudiated, withdrawn from, or not implemented by the United States or Iran.