Bab el-Mandeb Strait Effectively Closed?
By December 31, 2026
21%+37621¢4.762
By December 31, 2026
Yes
4.76x
No
1.25x
By August 31, 2026
8%+11508¢12.500
By August 31, 2026
Yes
12.5x
No
1.08x
By July 31, 2026
0%+9999990¢1,000,000.000
By July 31, 2026
Yes
No
This market will settle to Yes if the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, according to IMF PortWatch, is less than or equal to 10 for any day between July 12 and July 31, 2026. Outcome sourced from IMF PortWatch.
This market will settle as soon as IMF PortWatch (https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint4) publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If IMF PortWatch publishes data which is clearly erroneous (e.g., a typographic mistake or other clerical error), settlement may be delayed pending correction or confirmation by IMF PortWatch.
- Upcoming: Event startDec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST
- Upcoming: Market closesDec 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM EST
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
What is the “Bab el-Mandeb Strait Effectively Closed?” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of Bab el-Mandeb Strait Effectively Closed?. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
What happens if I hold winning shares?
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Where do the odds come from?
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.