Strait of Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal?
By August 31
12%+73312¢8.333
By August 31
Yes
8.33x
No
1.12x
By June 30
0%+9999990¢1,000,000.000
By June 30
Yes
No
By July 15
0%+9999990¢1,000,000.000
By July 15
Yes
No
By July 31
0%+9999990¢1,000,000.000
By July 31
Yes
No
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, according to IMF PortWatch, is greater than or equal to 60 for any day between June 22 and June 30, this market settles to Yes. Outcome verified by IMF PortWatch.
This market will settle as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If IMF PortWatch publishes data which is clearly erroneous (e.g., a typographic mistake or other clerical error), settlement may be delayed pending correction or confirmation by IMF PortWatch.
- Upcoming: Event startAug 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM EDT
- Upcoming: Market closesAug 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM EDT
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
What is the “Strait of Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal?” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of Strait of Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal?. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
What happens if I hold winning shares?
Each winning share redeems at $1 once the market resolves. Your profit is the difference between $1 and what you paid per share.
Where do the odds come from?
Odds come from real traders backing their views with money, not from a bookmaker. Research shows prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available.