US Withdraws From NATO?
By December 31, 2026
3%+32333¢33.333
By December 31, 2026
Yes
33.33x
No
1.02x
By July 31, 2026
0%+9999990¢1,000,000.000
By July 31, 2026
Yes
No
This market will settle to Yes if the United States formally initiates its withdrawal from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from the federal government of the United States and NATO.
A formal initiation of withdrawal refers to the United States taking an official action to initiate its withdrawal from NATO under the governing framework of NATO (e.g., a submission of a notice of denunciation under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty). Legal or political challenges, reversals, or other developments which occur after the formal initiation of withdrawal do not impact settlement. Where no official process for withdrawal exists or is relevant, withdrawal actions taken by the United States may qualify if they are official and clearly directed at withdrawal from NATO. If NATO formally dissolves or otherwise ceases to exist, such dissolution will be considered a withdrawal.
- Upcoming: Event startDec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST
- Upcoming: Market closesDec 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM EST
- Upcoming: PayoutUsually within 25 min of market closing
What is the “US Withdraws From NATO?” prediction market?
This market lets you trade on the outcome of US Withdraws From NATO?. Prices reflect the market's current estimate of each outcome's probability.
How are prices determined?
Prices move with supply and demand as traders buy and sell outcome shares. A price of 60¢ implies the market estimates a 60% chance.
When does this market resolve?
The market resolves when the outcome is officially determined, per the resolution rules above. Winning shares redeem at $1.
Can I sell my position before the market resolves?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current market price any time before resolution — you never have to wait for the outcome.
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